Multi-Timeframe EMA Dynamic Grid
Confluent 9 EMA / 21 EMA / 50 SMA Trend Filter Grid
Methodology Overview
The Multi-Timeframe EMA Dynamic Grid enforces trend discipline by requiring multi-moving average alignment. Rather than isolated 2-line crosses that produce whipsaws in choppy markets, it combines the fast 9-period EMA, medium 21-period EMA, and the institutional 50-period SMA trend benchmark.
Core Empirical Hypothesis
A fast exponential moving average (9 EMA) crossing above a medium baseline (21 EMA) only exhibits statistical edge when the underlying asset is confirmed to be trading in an institutional macro bull regime (Price > 50 SMA) and supported by above-average volume turnover.
Evaluation Scope
| Year | Trades | Win Rate | Total Net PnL | Avg PnL / Trade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1,100 | 41.2% | +520.4% | +0.47% | PROFIT |
| 2016 | 1,450 | 51.3% | +2,410.8% | +1.66% | PROFIT |
| 2017 | 1,520 | 50.8% | +1,820.5% | +1.20% | PROFIT |
| 2018 | 1,300 | 42.1% | +310.2% | +0.24% | PROFIT |
| 2019 | 1,150 | 31.0% | -1,450.3% | -1.26% | LOSS |
| 2020 | 1,280 | 49.5% | +1,690.4% | +1.32% | PROFIT |
| 2021 | 1,620 | 53.4% | +3,120.7% | +1.93% | PROFIT |
| 2022 | 1,050 | 39.8% | -410.2% | -0.39% | LOSS |
| 2023 | 980 | 40.2% | -220.1% | -0.22% | LOSS |
| 2024 | 1,020 | 34.1% | -890.6% | -0.87% | LOSS |
| 2025 | 1,210 | 48.7% | +1,180.5% | +0.98% | PROFIT |
| 2026 | 650 | 52.0% | +1,420.44% | +2.19% | PROFIT |
First-Principles Formulations
\text{EMA}_t(k) = P_t \cdot \left(\frac{2}{k + 1}\right) + \text{EMA}_{t-1} \cdot \left(1 - \frac{2}{k + 1}\right)Applied across k=9 (fast momentum) and k=21 (intermediate baseline).
\text{SMA}_{50}(t) = \frac{1}{50} \sum_{i=0}^{49} P_{t-i}Enforces macro trend filter: entry is prohibited unless Price > SMA_50.
P_t > \text{EMA}_9(t) > \text{EMA}_{21}(t) > \text{SMA}_{50}(t)Perfect bullish alignment across fast, medium, and macro timeframes.
Operational Strategy Rules
EMA_9 crosses above EMA_21 AND Close > SMA_50Fast momentum expansion confirmed by macro institutional trend.
Volume > SMA_20(Volume)Session volume must exceed its 20-day moving average to avoid low-liquidity drift.
Price falls 3.5% below highest high since entryLocks in trend profits and guards against sudden blow-off tops.
Close crosses below EMA_21 OR Duration >= 45 DaysExits when intermediate trend baseline is breached or holding limit is reached.
During prolonged floor price regimes, moving average slopes flatten to zero. When trading resumes, gaps down below the 50 SMA can produce multiple consecutive stop-outs.
Moving average crosses lag instant market turning points. In illiquid DSE scrips, the exit signal often occurs after substantial price erosion has already materialized.
With 44.75% win rate, the 0.40% round-trip commission is a significant hurdle. Churning during consolidations erodes net account equity without strict trade limits.
Requires rigorous allocation caps because simultaneous crosses can trigger across dozens of stocks in a single bull session.
| Signal ID | Symbol | Signal Date | Entry (BDT) | Exit (BDT) | Net Return | Horizon | Outcome | Exit Reason / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMA-2026-01 | EBL | 2026-06-18 | ৳28.50 | ৳32.10 | +12.23% | 28d | WIN | [Trailing Stop (3.5%)] Clean 9/21 cross above 50 SMA with high banking turnover. |
| EMA-2026-02 | LHBL | 2026-05-12 | ৳68.20 | ৳74.50 | +8.84% | 24d | WIN | [EMA 21 Invalidation] Cement sector momentum confirmed by above-average volume. |
| EMA-2026-03 | TITASGAS | 2026-04-10 | ৳34.00 | ৳32.40 | -5.11% | 11d | LOSS | [Stop Loss Hit] False breakout in power sector during regulatory price review. |